As one of the largest supporting industries, the Wire and Cable manufacturing is closely related to every sector of the national economy and even to the growth of the world economy. The developments of the main industries concerning wire and cable and the demand for wire and cable will be presented in the following paragraphs.
1. Information industry
The information industry in China has been growing at a yearly average rate of 25% for the past nearly 20 years, whose development is faster than any other industry. Now the information industry in China has become the first supporting industry. In the ten years to come, the information industry will continue to grow at a yearly growth rate of over 20% to become twice as large. As one of the important components of the information industry, the telecom industry is closely related to optical fiber and cable, balanced copper cable and coaxial cable. The potential markets of these three categories of wire and cable are described as follows:
（1）Optical fiber and fiber cable
The growth rate between 40% and 50% in 2000 and 2001 for the optical fiber and fiber cable in China and a short supply of optical fibers in the world market made the prices of optical fibers rising drastically. As China imported large amount of optical fibers from abroad in 2002, the domestic market declined accordingly and the prices of optical fibers fell drastically. In the 5 years to come, the optical fiber and fiber cable in China will grow at an average rate of 15% to reach 16.5 million fkm in 2005, of which G.652 fiber will take ca. 68%. B4 class NZ-DSF（G.655 fiber）will grow faster during the Tenth Five Year Plan and thereafter to take ca. 20% of the total. Especially more long-distance cables will be applied for the connection between the key cities in Eastern China and Western China. Attention shall be drawn to optical fiber ribbon cables, optical fiber cables for power communication and tight-buffered cables. The first backbone networks were already built during the Eighth Five Year Plan and the Nineth Five Year Plan. The telecom industry has split into several telecom operators who want to build their own backbone network though, more fiber cables will be used in access networks (subscriber cables). With the comprehensive construction of FTTB and FTTC, the demand for fiber ribbon cables will be used in great quantities during the Tenth Five Year Plan. With the construction of FTTH, the demand for fiber ribbon cables will grow to even more than half of the total demand for optical fibers. The optical fiber cables for power communication will be discussed in the paragraphs for Electrical Power. With the development of PDS vertical wiring system and FTTH, the demand for tightly buffered cables will become as large as for telephone cables. The potential market is great. But FTTH is predicted to be still in the early stage of development before 2010. Therefore, the demand for tightly buffered cables will not grow very fast during the Tenth Five Year Plan, presumably 100 000 fkm p.a. But the manufacturers shall have this kind of cables as a reservoir for technology and product.
During the Tenth Five Year Plan, optical fibers will still be used mainly in Eastern China and Middle China, because the demand for optical networks is concentrated in these areas. Especially the construction of the access networks, where most fibers will be used, will still be focused on Eastern China in the early years of the Tenth Five Year Plan. The central government adopts the strategy of extensively developing Western China though, the development of the optical fiber commuincation in the West has been ahead of time. For example, the per capita fibers by China Telecom in the West is 60% of that in the East, while the per capita business is only 20% of that in the East. Obviously, the preoccupation in the West is to increase the fiber utilization ratio. In fact, China Telecom, China Unicom, China Netcom and the CATV operator have all taken Eastern China and Middle China as the focus of their development.

(2) Balanced copper cables for local telecommunication
During the Eighth Five Year Plan and the Nineth Five Year Plan, the local telecom cables in China were developing rapidly resulting in great increase in per capta telephone line. In the first year of the Tenth Five Year Plan, the local telecom cables in China continued to grow greatly. The mobile phones in China grew to 120.6 million subscribers (exceeding those in the USA) in July, 2001, rendering China the greatest country in terms of mobile phones though, the fixed phones. continued to grow unaffected.
According to the long-term plan of the Ministry of Information Industry, the total telephones in China will grow to ca. 500 million subscribers with a rate of popularity of 38%, of which the fixed phones will amount to 290 million subscribers with a rate of popularity of 23%, more than twice as many as in 1995. Thus, the rate of popularity of the fixed phones will have a yearly growth rate of 1.3%, higher than that for the Nineth Five Year Plan. In the first half of this year (2003), the rate of popularity of the fixed phones had already increased 2%. It may be said that during the Tenth Five Year Plan, especially in the first three years, there will be a peak in fixed phone sales which is predicted to be ca. 100 million pair.km p.a.. After that the sales will maintain between 100~110 million pair.km p.a.. The market of fixed phones has the characteristics as follows:
The local telecom cables will find its market mainly in newly built cities in Middle and Western China. The rural telephone cables will have great growth. In 2000, the urban subscribers of fixed phones took 64.2% of the total; the rural subscribers took 35.8%, an increase of 4% compared to those in 1999. The growth rate of the rural fixed phones has surpassed that of the urban fixed phones. The mobile pones will grow beyond expectation though, higher price, shorter service time and higher service charges will limit the application of mobile phones to Eastern China and other richer areas. Because of this, the growth of fixed phones will not be weakened by the mobile phones.      
For the network communication or the third main communication, the national backbone networks are being built or improved and the provincial network is also being built. This kind of communication use mainly optical fiber cable as the transmission medium. The a.m. growth of optical fiber cables includes those used for the network communication. The subscribers of network are increasing continuously. In the first half of 2001, 3.475 million subscribers are added to the registered subscribers of Internet resulting in total subscribers amounting to 11.625 million. The users may enter Internet through broadband LAN though, not a small part of subscribers use telephone lines, which increases the demand for local telecom cables. The a.m. demand for local telecom cables includes the subscribers of Internet using telephone lines.

(3) CATV cables
The network of broadcast and TV will also grow greatly during the Tenth Five Year Plan. This kind of network use mainly optical fiber cables and CATV cables. Up to 2005, the optical fibers used by the network of broadcast and TV will take 8%～13% of the national total. For cables entering homes, usually CATV cables are used. In 2000, the production of CATV cables amounted to one million kilometers. CATV cables will continue to grow at an average yearly growth rate of 8% in the five years to come.
 (4) Other cables
The business of mobile phone in China covers all the cities and more than 95% counties of China. China has been in co-operation with 63 countries in the world concerning automatic international roaming business. The receiving and sending of mobile phone signals require that the mobile phone base stations be built throughout the country. Each base station will use 300 m～400m RF cables This is a small figure though, as each year ca.10 000 new base stations are added, the demand for this kind of cables will amount to 4000km p.a. in the end. Besides, the stations of the specific networks of railway, transportation, police etc use 1500km～1800km RF cables each year. LAN is still growing, which use categories 5, 5+ and 6 cables. The related market will be discussed in the paragraph for building wires.

Electric power industry
The electric power industry in China remained the first supporting industry until 1997. It gave up its seat to the information industry only recently due to the development of the latter. Still, electric power industry takes an important part of the national economy. The development of the electric power industry will result in increase in sales of overhead conductors, power cables and OPGW. The three years renovation of urban and rural power grids began in 1998 only made some compensation to the existing defective power grid caused by the wrong strategy of the previous over ten years when importance was attached to power generation, less importance was attached to power transmission and no importance was attached to power distribution. During the Tenth Five Year Plan, the first five year plan in the new century, the electric power industry in China will develop under the guidance of focusing on the construction of power grid, developing actively hydroelectric power industry, optimizing the composition of the thermal power industry, developing moderately the nuclear power industry and developing the power generation by new energy sources if the local conditions permit.
We can see that importance is also attached to the construction of power grid during the Tenth Five Year Plan. The total investment during that period will exceed ￥500 billion, of which, ￥300 billion will be invested in the construction of the urban and rural power grids, while ￥150-200 billion will be invested in the interconnecting networks between the individual sectional power grids. All of these investments are related to the wire and cable industry. In recent years, a strategic plan of Power Generated in the West being Transmitted to the East was put forward, in which the following objects would be reached within ten years: in Northern China, the power generated by the thermal power stations in Shanxi Province and western Inner Mongolia shall be transmitted to Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan; in Middle China, the power generated by the Gezhouba Hydroelectric Power Station in The Three Gorges on the Yantze River shall be transmitted to Shanghai; in Southern China, the interconnected power grids will transmit the power generated by Tianshengqiao Hydroelectric Power Station and other hydroelectric power stations in Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces to Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region of Zhuang Nationality etc. At present, some achievements have been already made in terms of the strategic plan. With the implementation of the strategy of Extensively Developing the West, thermal power stations will be built in western Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaaxi, Ningxia and western Henan; large hydroelectric power stations will be developed in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, Jinsha river, Lancangjiang River, Hongshuihe River and Wujiang River; and the backbone transmission lines will be built for the plan of Power Generated in the West being Transmitted to the East. As a result, the transmission capacity of the Plan will grow, which will promote the development of the power grid.  
The development of the electric power and construction of power grid will provide potential market for the following wire and cable products:
(1) Overhead conductors: the interconnection between the individual sectional power grids in Northern China, Middle China and Southern China and the realization of a national unified power grid need great quantities of super-high voltage large capacity overhead conductors (750kV lines for Northeast China and 500kV lines for the rest areas). As a result, the demand for overhead conductors will grow from 0.6 million tons in 2000 to 0.9 million～1.0 million tons in 2005.
(2) Power communication cables: the guidance of the power communication in China is as follows: the backbone networks will consist of mainly optical fibers aided by microwave communication and the border areas may use satellite communication. According to the plan, the primary networks of optical fiber for the national power communication will be roughly built in 2005, resulting in three longitudinal and four horizontal lines. Therefor, the power communication lines using mainly OPGW and ADSS cables will develop extensively. The demand for OPGW and ADSS in 2005 is predicted to be over 20 000 km and over 15 000 km respectively.
(3) In order to meet the requirement of power supply by double ring network in large cities, the use of middle voltage 10～35kV cables will also exceed 2 500 km in 2005 (still consisting mainly of XLPE cables).
(4) Demand for the wire and cable for nuclear power station will grow somewhat.
 
Besides, demand for the following wire and cable products will also be rather great during the Tenth Five Year Plan: building wire, branched cable, busway, elevator cable, category 5+ cable, category 6 and 7 cables, data cable and under carpet flat cable, the wiring wire for home appliances, the high voltage lead, focusing wire, screen-grid wire and grounding wire and wire harness used in colour TV and monitor of computer, the overhead conductor and power cable, locomotive cable, bus bar, antimony bar and optical fiber cable used in electrified railway, optical fiber cable and coaxial cable used in the construction of highway, city rail transportation lines and seaport, enamel wire and wire harness used in car and motorcycle, ship cables for ship building and mining cables for coal mines.

好高深啊，有没有中文的译文啊！

搞点中文的好吗？都是中国人嘛！

电线电缆制造业作为最大的支柱产业之一，与国民经济的各个部门乃至整个世界经济的增长密切相关，下面几章将介绍有关电线电缆的主要产业的发展以及电线电缆的需求情况。

1.信息产业

在过去的近20年里，中国的信息产业在以每年25%的速度增长，其发展速度比其他任何产业都快。现在信息产业已成为中国一流的产业。在未来的10年内，信息产业将继续以每年超20%的速率增长，规模会翻2倍。电信产业，作为信息产业的重要组成部分，与光纤光缆及对称铜电缆和同轴电缆密切相关。下面谈谈这三种电线电缆的潜在市场：

（1）光纤光缆

2000-2001年中国的光纤光缆是40%-50%之间的增长率及世界市场光纤的供货不足，使得光纤价格猛涨。2002年中国进口了大量的光纤，国内市场衰弱，光纤价格猛降。在未来5年里，中国的光纤光缆将以平均速率15%增长, 在2005年达到165万fkm, 其中G652光纤将占68%。 B4 class NZ-DSF(G.655 光纤)在第十个五年计划中增长更快，之后会占到20%。尤其是用来连接中国东部和西部重要城市的长距离的电缆。带状光缆，用于电力通信的光纤电缆，紧密缓冲电缆须引起注意。第一个中枢系统在第8个和第9个五年计划间就已建立。

通信产业分给几个通信运营商，他们想要建立自己的中枢系统，在接入系统中（用户电缆）会使用更多的光缆。由于FTTB（光纤到楼）和FTTC（光纤到路边）结构复杂，在第10个五年计划期间带状光缆的需求量会很大。FTTH（光纤到户）的结构，带状电缆的需求将增长超过整个光缆总需求的一半。用于电力通信的光纤光缆将在电源一章中讨论。随着PDS 垂直配线系统和FTTH的发展，紧密缓冲电缆的需求会和电话机电缆的需求一样大。潜在的市场是巨大的。预计在2010前FTTH仍然处在发展的初期。因此，在第10个五年计划里紧密缓冲电缆的需求不会快速增长。估计在100 000 fkm p.a。但生产商可把这种电缆作为技术和产品的存储。

在第10个五年计划期间，光纤电缆仍然主要用于中国东部和中部，因为光纤系统的需求也主要集中在这些区域。在第10个五年计划的最初几年大多数光纤光缆主要用于中国东部的接入系统。中央政府实施了很多战略来发展中国西部，西部光纤通信的发展也已提早。例如，西部人均中国电信光纤是东部的60%。但是人均业务仅是东部的20%。显然，西部地区的当务之急是提高光纤利用率。实际上，中国电信，中国联通，中国网络通信和有线电视系统经营者都把目光聚集在了中国东部和中部。

(今天先到这里，下次继续)